Private beta — invite only

The edge in climate markets.

Tropo analyzes weather data and model probabilities to find where Kalshi prediction markets are mispriced. Signals, not slot machines.

iOS app coming soon — join the waitlist to get an invite when TestFlight opens.

See today's top edge

Research only. Tropo does not execute trades or hold funds.

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Built for the quants who treat weather like an asset class.

Three principles shape everything we ship.

Quantitative edge

Bayesian models on 30+ years of climate data. Not vibes.

CFTC-regulated

All trades happen on Kalshi, a Designated Contract Market. Tropo is research only.

Honest track record

Every call is logged from day one. Wins and losses publish in public once the sample is large enough to matter — no cherry-picking.

How it works

Three steps from climate data to a clean trade idea.

We model
NWS forecast + historical patterns + ENSO/PDO climate signals → probability distribution.
We compare
Our probability vs. Kalshi's market price → statistical edge.
You decide
One-tap deep-link to Kalshi to execute. We never touch your money.

Today's model

What the model sees right now.

Top 3 mispricings from today's live run. Pulled directly from the production backend — the same data your phone gets.

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Track record

Our live numbers, updated in public.

Every call we publish is scored when the contract resolves. No simulated history, no retroactive tweaks — just the ledger.

Full accuracy page

Total calls

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Win rate

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Avg edge captured

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Brier score

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Frequently asked questions

Is Tropo a broker?

No. Tropo is a research and analytics platform only. We analyze weather data and identify statistical edge against Kalshi market prices — we do not execute trades, hold funds, or act as a broker. All trading happens directly on Kalshi (kalshi.com), a CFTC-designated contract market.

When does the iOS app ship?

iOS is coming soon. We're in private TestFlight now. Join the waitlist and you'll get an invite when the public build opens. Android is further out and gated on iOS traction.

How do I actually trade?

Inside the Tropo app, open the trade analysis screen for the market you're interested in and tap "Open on Kalshi." That deep-links you to the contract on Kalshi's regulated platform, where you review the market and place your trade in their environment.

What markets does Tropo cover?

At launch, Tropo covers monthly rainfall contracts on Kalshi across 9 U.S. cities — Austin, Denver, Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles, Chicago Midway, Miami, Seattle, and San Francisco. Temperature, snowfall, and hurricane-landfall markets are on the roadmap as Kalshi expands its climate-contract suite.

Where are your accuracy numbers?

We publish them the moment we have enough resolved calls to report honestly. We started tracking on our launch date and hold publication until the sample crosses 10 resolved calls, so the headline numbers aren't noise. Until then you'll see an empty state with the live count, not a manufactured stat.

Is my data safe?

All traffic is TLS-encrypted. Passwords are stored as bcrypt hashes — we never store plaintext. Analytics are consent-gated, and we don't sell your data or embed third-party advertising SDKs.